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  Topic Review (Newest First)
03-14-2017 11:53 PM
44thSKY
Quote:
Originally Posted by davhamm View Post
Not going to spend the time or 2 bucks. But what % of vehicles is he predicting will be driverless by then.
Dave, I don't recall a prediction was made on that. He does believe a test city will begin in the US in 2020.

Incidentally, I owe you a thanks for finding the retired GM engineer that first owned and drove my SKY for the first 8700 miles. He returned my call a couple of weeks ago. He had driven and owned all three of the Kappa models, SOLS, SKY, and SOLS COUPE.
03-14-2017 10:58 PM
davhamm
Quote:
Originally Posted by 44thSKY View Post
Hey for all you fellas with electronic readers, check out "DRIVERLESS CAR REVOLUTION, Buy Mobility, Not Metal" by Rutt Bridges. The book can be purchased in print, but an electronic copy is just $2. For $2, it wouldn't hurt to hear what 2020 expectations are.

After reading that book, it would sure be interesting to learn how some of you see things then.
Not going to spend the time or 2 bucks. But what % of vehicles is he predicting will be driverless by then. My opinion of these types of things is they are oversold, which of course helps sell the book. But I can give you something to read, that's about all I can say. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohn.../#314f21534caa
03-14-2017 02:06 PM
44thSKY Hey for all you fellas with electronic readers, check out "DRIVERLESS CAR REVOLUTION, Buy Mobility, Not Metal" by Rutt Bridges. The book can be purchased in print, but an electronic copy is just $2. For $2, it wouldn't hurt to hear what 2020 expectations are.

After reading that book, it would sure be interesting to learn how some of you see things then.
03-14-2017 01:53 PM
Norbert-GT
Quote:
Originally Posted by davhamm View Post
Buick will not go away. Its a HUGE brand in China (which is why it survived over Oldsmobile)
And for sure, Opel will be a next brand in China. Then PSA is also in co-ownership by Dongfeng!

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_28238109.htm
03-14-2017 01:26 PM
davhamm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Norbert-GT View Post
Next delete by the long list what GM will closed!
Buick will not go away. Its a HUGE brand in China (which is why it survived over Oldsmobile)
03-14-2017 11:52 AM
Norbert-GT
Quote:
Originally Posted by marlboromike View Post
I was also thinking....what will Buick do without the Opel design.
Next delete by the long list what GM will closed!
03-14-2017 02:57 AM
marlboromike
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sky4christ View Post
wow i thought buicks and opels were sharing platforms?
I was also thinking....what will Buick do without the Opel design.
03-13-2017 11:51 PM
Sky4christ wow i thought buicks and opels were sharing platforms?
03-12-2017 03:09 AM
mstrjon32
Quote:
Originally Posted by davhamm View Post
3 - 5 years out and you think battery prices will drop significantly (like 30 - 50%)? The other thing a lot of folks don't understand is the time frame to design, a car. But its a pretty safe bet to say every OEM out there, has math designs already on vehicle in your 3 - 5 yr time span.
Yes, I do. And I fully understand the development cycle for building cars, I have a number of friends that work in the auto industry. If you do an industry-wide assessment you can see that GM is postured for success in a marketplace shifting towards EV.

Quote:
Originally Posted by davhamm View Post
Just an example over 2 yrs ago, Organization's for the Blind started a push to require OEM's to have EV's make a sound when moving, there was lots of discussions, and in the US the bill just passed. It goes into effect for all EV's in 2020 depending on how the OEM's respond that might get pushed out further as thats a tight design window. And this is to add a speaker and some electronics that are about the size of a shoe box. To totally drop Diesel engines and replace with Electrics would take a lot longer.

The cool thing about the internet and making future predictions. In 3 - 5 yrs someone dig this up and see where we are. I will be amazed if there is a huge (over 30% market penetration of new cars) in Europe.
The work to ban them has already begun. By 2030 Germany intends to ban the sales of all new petrol and diesel cars, and although this hasn't yet been adopted by the EU, the wheels are in motion. Paris is often in the news for excessive smog, and has taken to banning cars with even or odd number plates to cut down on pollution during heavy pollution periods. Stuttgart intends to follow in the coming year. I predict that it will be well before 2030 that we see a complete ban on diesel in the city center.

The biggest challenge so far has been a lack of charging infrastructure and the high cost of electricity in Germany. But, I also think we're on the verge of overcoming these issues and when we do we will see rapid adoption. However, whatever the outcome, we can be sure that GM/Opel won't be part of that revolution.
03-11-2017 06:36 PM
davhamm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstrjon32 View Post
I don't think it will take 10 years for this change, I would wager in the next 3-5 years this will be implemented.

Chevrolet's brand is all but ruined in Europe, most people associate it with the absolute bottom-tier Korean garbage cars that GM sold here or with the big American V8 icons like the Camaro and Corvette--not a good starting point for practical transportation. Cadillac also holds no water from a marketing perspective. If there was a GM brand that could have led an electric transformation, it was Opel.
3 - 5 years out and you think battery prices will drop significantly (like 30 - 50%)? The other thing a lot of folks don't understand is the time frame to design, a car. But its a pretty safe bet to say every OEM out there, has math designs already on vehicle in your 3 - 5 yr time span.

Just an example over 2 yrs ago, Organization's for the Blind started a push to require OEM's to have EV's make a sound when moving, there was lots of discussions, and in the US the bill just passed. It goes into effect for all EV's in 2020 depending on how the OEM's respond that might get pushed out further as thats a tight design window. And this is to add a speaker and some electronics that are about the size of a shoe box. To totally drop Diesel engines and replace with Electrics would take a lot longer.

The cool thing about the internet and making future predictions. In 3 - 5 yrs someone dig this up and see where we are. I will be amazed if there is a huge (over 30% market penetration of new cars) in Europe.
03-11-2017 06:20 PM
mstrjon32
Quote:
Originally Posted by davhamm View Post
How long do you think this diesel to EV transformation will take? I'm guessing your talking 10yrs out. How long do you think it would take GM to expand the Chevy and Cadillac brands in Europe especially if the EV market evolves like you think, and GM keeps evolving the technology in the US market? It might be easier and more cost effective to get new dealerships and expand those brands then carry Opel and the dealership.
I don't think it will take 10 years for this change, I would wager in the next 3-5 years this will be implemented.

Chevrolet's brand is all but ruined in Europe, most people associate it with the absolute bottom-tier Korean garbage cars that GM sold here or with the big American V8 icons like the Camaro and Corvette--not a good starting point for practical transportation. Cadillac also holds no water from a marketing perspective. If there was a GM brand that could have led an electric transformation, it was Opel.
03-11-2017 06:04 PM
davhamm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstrjon32 View Post
Perhaps in the short-term, but there is an increasing movement to ban diesel cars from entering European city centers full stop (Good. They do stink!) This wouldn't be unheard of--there is already an emissions control system in place that forbids taking a pre-2006 diesel into most German city centers, and forbids pre-1993 petrol cars.

The next time the belt tightens it might also significantly push for the adoption of EV's. By then battery technology will likely be developed enough that they'll be cost effective to make without subsidies, and combined with increasing emissions standards in Europe it will be a golden new market opportunity. It seems to me that GM could have leveraged all of the work they've done with EV's to capitalize on this opportunity, but at this point they've almost entirely exited the European market.

How long do you think this diesel to EV transformation will take? I'm guessing your talking 10yrs out. How long do you think it would take GM to expand the Chevy and Cadillac brands in Europe especially if the EV market evolves like you think, and GM keeps evolving the technology in the US market? It might be easier and more cost effective to get new dealerships and expand those brands then carry Opel and the dealership. I don't know what dealership networks or laws are like in Europe but in the US things are changing and from several angles your better off starting new then carrying what is in place (Tesla is rewriting the rules partly because they have no dealer network to deal with).
03-11-2017 05:40 PM
mstrjon32
Quote:
Originally Posted by davhamm View Post
GM management has the eye on Profit. EV's don't make profit. Autonomous EV's sold to fleets might make profit.
Perhaps in the short-term, but there is an increasing movement to ban diesel cars from entering European city centers full stop (Good. They do stink!) This wouldn't be unheard of--there is already an emissions control system in place that forbids taking a pre-2006 diesel into most German city centers, and forbids pre-1993 petrol cars.

The next time the belt tightens it might also significantly push for the adoption of EV's. By then battery technology will likely be developed enough that they'll be cost effective to make without subsidies, and combined with increasing emissions standards in Europe it will be a golden new market opportunity. It seems to me that GM could have leveraged all of the work they've done with EV's to capitalize on this opportunity, but at this point they've almost entirely exited the European market.
03-11-2017 12:36 PM
TomatoSoup
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaue Traum View Post
I do own two American cars which I use regularly, both are Packards from the 1920's which I use regularly. It is a pity that quality no longer seems to be what it was in the early part of the 20th Century.
This seems a bizarre look through rose-tinted spectacles! Modern cars are FAR higher in quality and reliabilty than cars even 20 years ago, never mind 100 years. Cars today need just 2 oil changes in 20000 miles. Cars from the 20's/30's/40's were lucky to get to 20000 miles without a full engine rebuild (or at least a complete valve job).

Quote:
Originally Posted by expostdelirium View Post
The USA will never be what it once was: it has never been what it was
Yeah, exactly like the quality of older cars
03-11-2017 11:58 AM
expostdelirium
Opel

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaue Traum View Post
Bad, very bad.
...general French laziness mean that anything they lay their hands on is doomed to failure. ...I can only hope that Donald Trump will bring the USA back to what she once was. If not the USA will follow Europe into chaos and terrorism.
Harsh. The USA will never be what it once was: it has never been what it was because it's always been moving forward. We realize we can make things better as we move forward. We realize things can be fixed because we've always been able to solve problems. We are great because we are dynamic. Folks that think stifling our dynamism by creating a false yearning for a time that wasn't truly as great for as many as it is now will find that we are going in the wrong direction. We'll be like that HS QB that's now just fat and useless, pining for his "glory days". That mindset of creating the "other" is what will drive us to being like Germany has been (minus the hyped cars), Italy at certain points, Spain at certain points, etc. The hegemony started dying in '65 (choose the century), but Mr. Trump isn't able/truly interested in hooking it up to life-support. Like P.E. said "Don't believe the hype". (IF I've gone too far, MODS please delete my post).

So then, it's a bad move for Opel to be owned by Group PSA.
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