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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Here's some fun you can have if you try to put things together that are "common knowledge" on this forum...

1. The Wilmington plant is making about 1,200 SKYs a month
2. Plan was for 10,000 SKYs this year
3. Ratio said to be 60% Base, 40% Red Line
4. Skywulf has the highest VIN I have seen - 4610
5. Adding another month 1,200 to that we get 5,810
6. So, give or take a bit, a month from now we will get our 6,000th Base SKY
7. The 60/40 split on 10,000 SKYs means 6,000 Base SKYs, 4,000 Red Lines
8. All the rumors say that Red Lines will start "in Late August" or - "a month from now - give or take a bit."
Now for the panic:

6,000 out of 6,000 Base SKYs built by August. Red Line production to start in August...

Therefore...

If your base SKY isn't built by August, it ain't gonna be until next year, because the line is going to be 100% Red Line after that.

All of you waiting may begin your panic now. Me, personally, I don't believe a minute of it. I can't imagine Base SKY shutdown as of August. But if I was was the hyper-paranoid kinda guy and a conspiracy nut, I could "Connect the Dots" in a very unpleasant way...
 

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Mine is shipped so sorry to say I don't care but I still feel bad for the people that don't have a image yet!!:eek:
 

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Where did you read that the line would go 100% readline?
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
rick112 said:
Where did you read that the line would go 100% readline?
Didn't read that at all Rick. That's my paranoid consipracy theory conclusion, if they are at vin 6000 in August and start Red Line Production in August. That's all.

If they are going to split 60/40, won't we have the 60 all done by August leaving just the 40 for the balance of the year? You can read the tea leaves that way, can't you?

Not saying that's how it will be, but the dots do line up that way...
 

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jdigiant said:
Didn't read that at all Rick. That's my paranoid consipracy theory conclusion, if they are at vin 6000 in August and start Red Line Production in August. That's all.

If they are going to split 60/40, won't we have the 60 all done by August leaving just the 40 for the balance of the year? You can read the tea leaves that way, can't you?

Not saying that's how it will be, but the dots do line up that way...
In this day and age being paranoid just makes good sense!!!!:D :thumbs:
 

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Building, selling, ordering, etc...
Your math is fine (if the numbers are correct -- I have heard 7,000 and 3000). But, say they do build the last of the Base -- then everyone who ordered (imaged ordered) will have a car.
This is why I keep asking --- WHAT IS YOUR DEALER'S ALLOCATION
If you are on a list to get a SKY (Base, R/L - Custom -- you name it) and you are 23 and the dealer only has a 15 allocation -- you will be driving a 2008 SKY.
When my dealer called me in January his words were
"We've been allocated 10 SKYs -- you are #9 on the list - so you are guaranteed a SKY." These are the ONLY words that mean anything.

Now, that out of the way.... No one said they'd stop building Base SKYs, and soon the 1200 they build could be 600 base and 600 R/Ls and soon too....
 

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Is there going to be a TEST on this later? SkyBaby-07
 

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I suspect this 60/40 split is the mix from the time Redline is introduced, not total year volumes.

40% of total production means almost 500 RL cars a month. If Redlines start being built early August there will be 5 months production, or 2500 cars by year end. If productions starts September, then 2000 RL's, etc.

Interesting that there are 500 dealers. That means they will be building 1 RL for each dealer each month. Wait, that doesn't sound good.:confused:
 

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the only math i did well in.. was.. PRE-ALGEBRA..... other than that... i think they passed me to get me out of the school.... or maybe that was so... i didnt cause trouble skipping class.... OOPSY.... I NEVER DID THAT.....SkyBaby-07
 

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Parthanon said:
I suspect this 60/40 split is the mix from the time Redline is introduced, not total year volumes.

40% of total production means almost 500 RL cars a month. If Redlines start being built early August there will be 5 months production, or 2500 cars by year end. If productions starts September, then 2000 RL's, etc.

Interesting that there are 500 dealers. That means they will be building 1 RL for each dealer each month. Wait, that doesn't sound good.:confused:
Eventually, this will hit all those blinded by optimism. Same thing exists with the GXP. And all the current demand has been generated without any full road tests or comparison tests by the car mags. The unethical dealers are going to get even more unethical when RLs/GXPs are on eBay for a $5K mark-up. Unless you're already in a high position on high-volume dealer's list and have your deal in writing, it's going to be ugly.
 

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Too many ifs

Too many ifs.

If the 10,000 total number is correct. (and I thought that was more like what they expected the plant could produce given current number of workers and shifts etc - not necessarily how many will actually be made in the end).

If the ratio 60/40 is correct. (don't recall where this number came from - was it speculation in the first place or from a reliable source?)

If the 10,000 represents base + RL or maybe that is base only and the RL will be an additional 40% on top of that - (and coudl be the reason for a ramp up in production - if orders for base model remain steady and RL attracts additional buyers then the market is larger than base model alone).

If RL production starts when expected - and no problems are encountered.

If they do not increase production (I'm torn on this one - increase makes it easier for me to get one when I am ready without having to place an order 6 months in advance, but I would hate to see the market saturated in only a couple years - then again if I end up waiting for a 2008 model that would not be entirely bad - from GM's perspective I would think any short term gains by selling a few thousand extra units this year would not be worth the risk of hitting a lull in the demand - of course with the same folks making Sky, Sky RL, Solstice, Solstice GXP, Opel GT - and possibly others - I suppose its all a matter of shifting from one to the other)

Also, could be that any statements made so far are how many they project might be ordered. If the bean counters expect to see 40% of all Sky orders placed for the Red Line verison then they would project plant operations and parts acquistition/manufacture/etc to coincide with that. If, after production starts the actual ratio of orders is higher or lower than the projection then some adjustments could be made.
 

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That is the Key word

Lil GTO said:
Too many ifs...
There lines the truth to this whole question.
IF

None of us really know what they are actually going to do.
We also do not know about any changes that they might decide to do.
IF is the question. :thumbs:
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Seagull said:
IF is the question. :thumbs:
Oh, exactly. I said "this is how all this stuff could line up." I did not say, "I figured it all out and this is how it is going to be." I don't know how it is going to be, and I don't think anybody else on this forum "knows" how it is going to be. Heck, I half suspect that GM doesn't "know" how it is going to be.

But I find analysis like this useful to propose as a strawman, then we can see what actually transpires and where the divergence is from the "conventional wisdom."

For example, a key indicator for me is: "What will happen to the 1,200 a month number when the Red Line is produced? Will it be 1,200 base + X additional Red Lines? Or will the 1,200 represent the total betweeen base and Red Line?" Note that if Saturn produces 1,200 SKYs a month that 14,000 a year, not 10,000 like they have been saying...

I know nothing. Nothing! I just find it "verrrry interesting."

Hmmm... Don't know if I was Sergeant Schultz on Hogan's Heroes or Arte Johnson on Laugh-In there. But I think there has to be a German helmet involved somewhere...
 

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The redline made from Feb/march untill 6/26/06 are 2007 cars produced in 2006 production figure. As of June 26, 2006 the new production year begins. So in reality you have 10,000 from 6/26/2006 untill around 6/26/07. The ones made in the 2006 build year is not in the 10,000 figure .Therefore you have 10,000 for build year 2007 and ( not sure exact amount) but say 4,500 for the 2006 build year. But they are all 2007 cars. I hope I explained this so it can be understood.So the 60/40 split start with the 2007 build year. But because of the late start they will probably not make the full 4,000 the first year. It will probably wook like Parthanon said 40% of the monthly total Sky's will be Red Lines or arond so if they make 1,200 cars 500 a month would be Red Lines and 700 Base Sky.

But don't forget the 10,000 quoted by Bob Lutz is an approximate figure, it could be a little more or less, but probably more if anything.
 

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It Wasn't You

jdigiant said:
Oh, exactly. I said "this is how all this stuff could line up." I did not say, "I figured it all out and this is how it is going to be." I don't know how it is going to be, and I don't think anybody else on this forum "knows" how it is going to be. Heck, I half suspect that GM doesn't "know" how it is going to be.

But I find analysis like this useful to propose as a strawman, then we can see what actually transpires and where the divergence is from the "conventional wisdom."

For example, a key indicator for me is: "What will happen to the 1,200 a month number when the Red Line is produced? Will it be 1,200 base + X additional Red Lines? Or will the 1,200 represent the total betweeen base and Red Line?" Note that if Saturn produces 1,200 SKYs a month that 14,000 a year, not 10,000 like they have been saying...

I know nothing. Nothing! I just find it "verrrry interesting."

Hmmm... Don't know if I was Sergeant Schultz on Hogan's Heroes or Arte Johnson on Laugh-In there. But I think there has to be a German helmet involved somewhere...
It Wasn't you that I was putting this down for. Only newer people who might jump the gun on things.
 

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deluke said:
The redline made from Feb/march untill 6/26/06 are 2007 cars produced in 2006 production figure. As of June 26, 2006 the new production year begins. So in reality you have 10,000 from 6/26/2006 untill around 6/26/07. The ones made in the 2006 build year is not in the 10,000 figure .Therefore you have 10,000 for build year 2007 and ( not sure exact amount) but say 4,500 for the 2006 build year. But they are all 2007 cars. I hope I explained this so it can be understood.So the 60/40 split start with the 2007 build year. But because of the late start they will probably not make the full 4,000 the first year. It will probably wook like Parthanon said 40% of the monthly total Sky's will be Red Lines or arond so if they make 1,200 cars 300 a month would be Red Lines and 900 Base Sky.

But don't forget the 10,000 quoted by Bob Lutz is an approximate figure, it could be a little more or less, but probably more if anything.
Hey -- THAT made sense -- thanks for the explaination... Based on your past info -- very little salt is seen...:thumbs:
 

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Rick Tinley Park said:
Hey -- THAT made sense -- thanks for the explaination... Based on your past info -- very little salt is seen...:thumbs:
I said I wasn't going to post anymore, but can't help it if I think I can explain it or know about it. But I made a typo, it's suppose to be 500 and 700. Bye untill I can't help myself again. Thanks Rick, I'm really not a bitch just get fed up sometime.
 
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